Philippe Ciais

Research summary

Four independent estimation methods — grid-based and point-based statistical and process-based models — were combined to project major-crop yield responses to warming; the multi-method analysis indicates that, without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, or genetic improvement, each 1°C increase in global mean temperature reduces global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%, with heterogeneity across crops and regions [1]. Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) was estimated at 123 ± 8 Pg C yr^-1 by integrating eddy-covariance flux data with several diagnostic models; tropical forests and savannahs account for ~60% of the global flux, and observation-model comparisons reveal inter-model spread in the latitudinal pattern that suggests missing processes in process-oriented biosphere models [2]. ORCHIDEE-style dynamic global vegetation modelling is presented as a coupled scheme that simulates photosynthesis, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, fire, and biophysical exchanges, while explicitly representing competition processes such as light competition and sapling establishment, enabling use inside coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models [3]. The Global Methane Budget 2000-2017 quantifies sources, sinks, and atmospheric growth-rate variations for CH4 — the second-most-important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after CO2 — and emphasises the role of shorter atmospheric lifetime and stronger warming potential when allocating mitigation priorities [4]. The Global Carbon Budget 2020 provides a synthesis of the five major components of the carbon cycle — fossil emissions (energy and cement data), emissions from land-use change (mostly deforestation), atmospheric growth, ocean uptake, and the residual terrestrial sink — with explicit uncertainty quantification for each component to support climate-policy projections [5].

Recent publications

1. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China2010 · Nature · 3417 citationsDOI
2. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates2017 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 3057 citationsDOI
3. Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate2010 · Science · 2875 citationsDOI
4. China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management2019 · Nature Sustainability · 2828 citationsDOI
5. A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere system2005 · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · 2728 citationsDOI
6. Greening of the Earth and its drivers2016 · Nature Climate Change · 2610 citationsDOI
7. The Global Methane Budget 2000-20172019 · NOAA Institutional Repository · 2592 citationsDOI
8. Global Carbon Budget 20202020 · Earth system science data · 2514 citationsDOI
9. Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters2013 · Nature · 2503 citationsDOI
10. Three decades of global methane sources and sinks2013 · Nature Geoscience · 2348 citationsDOI

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Email Philippe Ciais 6-12 months before your application deadline. Read several recent papers and reference specific work in your message. Use our how to email a Japanese professor guide for the proven email structure.

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External profiles

• ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943
• OpenAlex: openalex.org

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